It's the Economy, stupid.

[locke]

so yeah, Bear Stearns (one of the world's largest investment banks), which a week ago was trading at 80 dollars a share just got bought at 2 dollars a share by JP Morgan in a bailout. That's one hell of a collapse.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-b ... 1530.story

Just a useful thread to track the ever worsening US economy.

[Dr. Mobius]

If we're going to track the economy, better make sure everyone understands it first.

Those of you who don't trust YouTube links can look it up yourself. Search for "principles of econ."

[locke]

awesome link. thanks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/world ... et.html?hp

the eastern markets are tumbling in early trading, I'm guessing Monday will see at least a 400-450 drop in the dow in the early part of the day, but will rally late and manage only a 200ish point drop by closing, however over the next two-three weeks we'll probably see a second 'correction' occur, which means overall the major indices stabilize after at least 10% drop. We've already had one correction in the last six months. If a third one comes along, GWB will be the first two term president in the history of the country to oversee a stock market below the level it was when he took office.

[jotabe]

Sad era we live in, with economy in the hands of politicians, journalists, historians and economists, instead of mathematicians

[Syphon the Sun]

Sad era we live in, with economy in the hands of politicians, journalists, historians and economists, instead of mathematicians

The mathematicians are all busy being hopped up on amphetamines.

[John Locke]

Most of the mathematicians I know are helping work out the internet, general unified theory of physics, and myriad other tasks.
We need more mathematicians!

[Jayelle]

Most of the mathematicians I know are helping work out the internet, general unified theory of physics, and myriad other tasks.
We need more mathematicians!

Or sitting in cubicles doing actuarial math at Insurance companies.

[John Locke]

So Jayelle, are you an actuary, or just slightly cynical?
Truth be told, my uncle used to be an actuary, and though he was good, he said that it was a weighing of the evidence more than anything.
Whether this is false modesty or not, I don't know.
Anybody have more knowledge?

[Eaquae Legit]

I know that act sci is something I never want to do.

[John Locke]

[quote="Eaquae Legit"]I know that act sci is something I never want to do. [/quote]

Well said.

[locke]

Two SUPERB op-eds in the NYT today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/opini ... wanted=all

The Madoff scandal echoes a deeper absence inside our financial system, which has been undermined not merely by bad behavior but by the lack of checks and balances to discourage it. “Greed” doesn’t cut it as a satisfying explanation for the current financial crisis. Greed was necessary but insufficient; in any case, we are as likely to eliminate greed from our national character as we are lust and envy. The fixable problem isn’t the greed of the few but the misaligned interests of the many.
...
OUR financial catastrophe, like Bernard Madoff’s pyramid scheme, required all sorts of important, plugged-in people to sacrifice our collective long-term interests for short-term gain. The pressure to do this in today’s financial markets is immense. Obviously the greater the market pressure to excel in the short term, the greater the need for pressure from outside the market to consider the longer term. But that’s the problem: there is no longer any serious pressure from outside the market. The tyranny of the short term has extended itself with frightening ease into the entities that were meant to, one way or another, discipline Wall Street, and force it to consider its enlightened self-interest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/opini ... wanted=all

Stop making big regulatory decisions with long-term consequences based on their short-term effect on stock prices. Stock prices go up and down: let them. An absurd number of the official crises have been negotiated and resolved over weekends so that they may be presented as a fait accompli “before the Asian markets open.” The hasty crisis-to-crisis policy decision-making lacks coherence for the obvious reason that it is more or less driven by a desire to please the stock market. The Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the S.E.C. all seem to view propping up stock prices as a critical part of their mission — indeed, the Federal Reserve sometimes seems more concerned than the average Wall Street trader with the market’s day-to-day movements. If the policies are sound, the stock market will eventually learn to take care of itself.