Annual Oscar Predictions

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Annual Oscar Predictions

Postby ValentineNicole » Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:12 am

It's that time of year again for Oscar nominations to finally show up. I know several pwebbers have some opinions on who deserves the most prestigious awards in film making.
The nominations include (with my choices for favorites bolded):

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Leonardo DiCaprio in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Gosling in “Half Nelson” (THINKFilm)
Peter O’Toole in “Venus” (Miramax, Filmfour and UK Council)
Will Smith in “The Pursuit of Happyness” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Forest Whitaker in “The Last King of Scotland” (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Alan Arkin in “Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight)
Jackie Earle Haley in “Little Children” (New Line)
Djimon Hounsou in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Mark Wahlberg in “The Departed” (Warner Bros.) - As a footnote, I'm THRILLED Wahlberg received a nomination, although not my top choice

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Penélope Cruz in “Volver” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Judi Dench in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)
Helen Mirren in “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) - That one is a total given, I think..
Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada” (20th Century Fox)
Kate Winslet in “Little Children” (New Line)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Adriana Barraza in “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)
Abigail Breslin in “Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight)
Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Rinko Kikuchi in “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)

Best animated feature film of the year
“Cars” (Buena Vista) John Lasseter
“Happy Feet” (Warner Bros.) George Miller
“Monster House” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Gil Kenan

Achievement in art direction
“Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Art Direction: John Myhre
Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
“The Good Shepherd” (Universal)
Art Direction: Jeannine Oppewall
Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau and Leslie E. Rollins
“Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse)
Art Direction: Eugenio Caballero
Set Decoration: Pilar Revuelta

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Buena Vista)
Art Direction: Rick Heinrichs
Set Decoration: Cheryl A. Carasik
“The Prestige” (Buena Vista)
Art Direction: Nathan Crowley
Set Decoration: Julie Ochipinti

Achievement in cinematography
“The Black Dahlia” (Universal) Vilmos Zsigmond
“Children of Men” (Universal) Emmanuel Lubezki
“The Illusionist” (Yari Film Group) Dick Pope
“Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse) Guillermo Navarro
“The Prestige” (Buena Vista) Wally Pfister

Achievement in costume design
“Curse of the Golden Flower” (Sony Pictures Classics) Yee Chung Man
“The Devil Wears Prada” (20th Century Fox) Patricia Field
“Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount) Sharen Davis
“Marie Antoinette” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Milena Canonero
“The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) Consolata Boyle

Achievement in directing
“Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Alejandro González Iñárritu
“The Departed” (Warner Bros.) Martin Scorsese
“Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.) Clint Eastwood
“The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) Stephen Frears
“United 93” (Universal and StudioCanal) Paul Greengrass

Best documentary feature
“Deliver Us from Evil” (Lionsgate)
A Disarming Films Production
Amy Berg and Frank Donner
“An Inconvenient Truth” (Paramount Classics and Participant Productions)
A Lawrence Bender/Laurie David Production
Davis Guggenheim
“Iraq in Fragments” (Typecast Releasing)
A Typecast Pictures/Daylight Factory Production
James Longley and John Sinno
“Jesus Camp” (Magnolia Pictures)
A Loki Films Production
Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady
“My Country, My Country” (Zeitgeist Films)
A Praxis Films Production
Laura Poitras and Jocelyn Glatzer

Best documentary short subject
“The Blood of Yingzhou District”
A Thomas Lennon Films Production
Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon
“Recycled Life”
An Iwerks/Glad Production
Leslie Iwerks and Mike Glad
“Rehearsing a Dream”
A Simon & Goodman Picture Company Production
Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
“Two Hands”
A Crazy Boat Pictures Production
Nathaniel Kahn and Susan Rose Behr
**I'll be honest - I've only seen one of these films and don't feel as though I can judge this catagory**

Achievement in film editing
“Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise
“Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Steven Rosenblum
“Children of Men” (Universal) - I'm shifting my answer from Babel to Children of Men, based on things I recently learned about a few of the shots (ie, in the last sequence, it was actually a total of 5 takes, but it looked like one long shot).
Alex Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón
“The Departed” (Warner Bros.)
Thelma Schoonmaker
“United 93” (Universal and StudioCanal)
Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse and Richard Pearson
**Total toss-up. I can see any winning, really. All 5 were strong in this catagory**

Best foreign language film of the year
“After the Wedding” A Zentropa Entertainments 16 Production
Denmark
“Days of Glory (Indigènes)” A Tessalit Production
Algeria
“The Lives of Others” A Wiedemann & Berg Production
Germany
“Pan’s Labyrinth” A Tequila Gang/Esperanto Filmoj/Estudios Picasso Production
Mexico

“Water” A Hamilton-Mehta Production
Canada

Achievement in makeup
“Apocalypto” (Buena Vista) Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
“Click” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Kazuhiro Tsuji and Bill Corso
“Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse) David Marti and Montse Ribe

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Gustavo Santaolalla
“The Good German” (Warner Bros.) Thomas Newman
“Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight) Philip Glass
“Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse) Javier Navarrete
“The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) Alexandre Desplat
**Gotta support Thomas Newman. This was a real stretch for his typical style, and he pulls it off.**

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
(Paramount Classics and Participant Productions)
Music and Lyric by Melissa Etheridge
“Listen” from “Dreamgirls”
(DreamWorks and Paramount)
Music by Henry Krieger and Scott Cutler
Lyric by Anne Preven
“Love You I Do” from “Dreamgirls”
(DreamWorks and Paramount)
Music by Henry Krieger
Lyric by Siedah Garrett
“Our Town” from “Cars”
(Buena Vista)
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“Patience” from “Dreamgirls”
(DreamWorks and Paramount)
Music by Henry Krieger
Lyric by Willie Reale
**No Opinion, honestly..I'm guessing it will be one from Dreamgirls. That gives me a 3/5's shot at being right.**

Best motion picture of the year
“Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
An Anonymous Content/Zeta Film/Central Films Production
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Jon Kilik and Steve Golin, Producers

“The Departed” (Warner Bros.)
A Warner Bros. Pictures Production
Nominees to be determined
“Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.)
A DreamWorks Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures Production
Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz, Producers
“Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight)
A Big Beach/Bona Fide Production
Nominees to be determined
“The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada)
A Granada Production
Andy Harries, Christine Langan and Tracey Seaward, Producers
**My personal favorite was The Departed, though I am expected Babel to win**

Best animated short film
“The Danish Poet” (National Film Board of Canada)
A Mikrofilm and National Film Board of Canada Production
Torill Kove
“Lifted” (Buena Vista)
A Pixar Animation Studios Production
Gary Rydstrom
“The Little Matchgirl” (Buena Vista)
A Walt Disney Pictures Production
Roger Allers and Don Hahn

“Maestro” (Szimplafilm)
A Kedd Production
Geza M. Toth
“No Time for Nuts” (20th Century Fox)
A Blue Sky Studios Production
Chris Renaud and Michael Thurmeier

Best live action short film
“Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)”
A Peliculas Pendelton and Tus Ojos Production
Javier Fesser and Luis Manso
“Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)” (Kimuak)
An Altube Filmeak Production
Borja Cobeaga
“Helmer & Son”
A Nordisk Film Production
Soren Pilmark and Kim Magnusson
“The Saviour” (Australian Film Television and Radio School)
An Australian Film Television and Radio School Production
Peter Templeman and Stuart Parkyn
“West Bank Story”
An Ari Sandel, Pascal Vaguelsy, Amy Kim, Ravi Malhotra and Ashley Jordan Production
Ari Sandel
**No real opinion - I haven't seen any of the nominees yet**

Achievement in sound editing
“Apocalypto” (Buena Vista)
Sean McCormack and Kami Asgar
“Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Lon Bender
“Flags of Our Fathers” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by Paramount)
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.)
Alan Robert Murray

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Buena Vista)
Christopher Boyes and George Watters II

Achievement in sound mixing
“Apocalypto” (Buena Vista)
Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Fernando Camara
“Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ivan Sharrock
“Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Willie Burton
“Flags of Our Fathers” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by Paramount)
John Reitz, Dave Campbell, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Buena Vista)
Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes and Lee Orloff

Achievement in visual effects
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Buena Vista)
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall

“Poseidon” (Warner Bros.)
Boyd Shermis, Kim Libreri, Chaz Jarrett and John Frazier
“Superman Returns” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Stetson, Neil Corbould, Richard R. Hoover and Jon Thum

Adapted screenplay
“Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” (20th Century Fox)
Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Peter Baynham & Dan Mazer
Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Peter Baynham & Anthony Hines & Todd Phillips
“Children of Men” (Universal)
Screenplay by Alfonso Cuarón & Timothy J. Sexton and David Arata and Mark Fergus & Hawk Ostby
“The Departed” (Warner Bros.)
Screenplay by William Monahan
“Little Children” (New Line)
Screenplay by Todd Field & Tom Perrotta

“Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)
Screenplay by Patrick Marber

Original screenplay
“Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
Written by Guillermo Arriaga

“Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.)
Screenplay by Iris Yamashita
Story by Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis
“Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Michael Arndt
“Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse)
Written by Guillermo del Toro
“The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada)
Written by Peter Morgan
Last edited by ValentineNicole on Wed Jan 24, 2007 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby fawkes » Tue Jan 23, 2007 2:49 pm

Wow, I've only seen... seven of those movies. Out of all the nominations. Really want to see Pan's Labrynth, if I can find a theater playing it...
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Postby Ithilien » Wed Jan 24, 2007 2:04 pm

I think I've just realized how few films I've seen this year so I doubt I'm really going to be a fair judge.

But I agree, Mark 's performance in The Departed was so memorable and likeable! Djimon Hounsou was also really amazing in Blood Diamond though. So I can't really decide in the only catagory I can really decide in...
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Postby VelvetElvis » Wed Jan 24, 2007 2:34 pm

I've only seen ONE of those movies.
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Postby ValentineNicole » Wed Jan 24, 2007 2:54 pm

I didn't see Half Nelson while I had the opportunity (it played at the limited release theatre around here a while back), and I really wish I did. Also, the majority of the shorts, I haven't seen - hence why I didn't choose anything for those. Almost everyone has something they haven't seen. :)

**On a side note, Half Nelson comes out on dvd 2/13, luckily, so I will get to see it before the Oscars **

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Postby locke » Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:54 pm

we're a couple weeks out from oscar predictions but the Directors Guild announced their choices today and these are probably going to be the nominees for Best Picture this year:

The Dark Knight (yup, best picture)
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon

All five are terrific movies, four in my current top ten and Milk is my current number eleven or twelve for the year.

I love oscar season. :)
So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

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Postby Petra456 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:39 pm

There are no theaters around here playing Milk or Frost/Nixon, two of the movies i've really wanted to see this year.
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Postby Valentine » Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:44 pm

Frost/Nixon hasn't expanded yet. We haven't gotten it either.
Sad about Milk though :( Great film. I was ready to hand Sean Penn the oscar when I walked out (Though, I hear he has strong competition yet :wink: )

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Postby Olhado_ » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:29 am

I found this pretty humorous from the end of the show rant that Chuck Lorre usually does at the end of all his shows. :)

SPOILERS! (highlight to read)
It's that time of the year when movie studios seeking Oscar nominations for their films start asking for my consideration. Every trade ad and mailing begins with the words, "For your consideration." It's kind of a Hollywood tradition. Anyway, this is what I've considered so far: Milk (a well-meaning gay guy is shot to death by a homophobe), Doubt (A really mean nun accuses a really terrific priest of being a pedophile), Revolutionary Road (a married couple fight a lot, cheat on each other, then the wife bleeds to death following a botched abortion), Slumdog Millionaire (incredibly poor kids subjected to unthinkable evil, but with a happy ending), Defiance (starving Jews fight Nazis in the woods), The Wrestler (a broken-down, over-the-hill wrestler on steroids has a tough life), Changeling (a woman's son is abducted and the police put her in an insane asylum), Gran Torino (a dying widower commits suicide to help his neighbor), Benjamin Button (a guy grows old in reverse and then dies), Rachel Getting Married (a drug addict kills her baby brother and then pisses off her family during a wedding), and The Reader (Nazi atrocities, under-age sex and illiteracy prove to be a lethal combo). So, what am I considering? Well, for a moment or two I actually considered hanging myself. But then I thought, if I do that, the movies win.
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Postby locke » Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:50 am

The Dark Knight is the first film since almost famous to get support from every guild (except SAG) and miss out on a Best Picture nod. I sort of hate the Reader for this, except that I put the Reader ahead of Dark Knight in my own top ten. :-P I think I like the Dark Knight a whole lot more now that the academy snubbed it. The Reader is Harvey Weinstein's film, and since he's been a real force in the oscars (when his film, English Patient, won in 1996) blockbusters have in general not been accepted at the oscars, excepting the Lord of the Rings. Before English Patient you regularly had films like Forrest Gump, The Fugitive, Dances with Wolves, Field of Dreams, etc major blockbusters in their years, nominated for best picture. Since Weinstein's influence and Titanics win, blockbusters have generally left the BP race and interest in the oscars has plummeted year after year. Dark Knight could have brought back the old feeling of relevancy that the oscars used to have in the nineties, it's a shame it missed out on picture and director. That said it still has major nominations, the third most of any film.

BEST PICTURE


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount and Warner Bros.), A Kennedy/Marshall Production, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers

Frost/Nixon (Universal), A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production,Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers

Milk (Focus Features), A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production, Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers

The Reader (The Weinstein Company), A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production, Nominees to be determined

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight), A Celador Films Production,Christian Colson, Producer
_________________________________________


BEST DIRECTOR

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher
Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
Milk, Gus Van Sant
The Reader, Stephen Daldry
Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle


BEST ACTOR

Richard Jenkins in The Visitor
Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn in Milk
Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler


BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie in Changeling
Melissa Leo in Frozen River
Meryl Streep in Doubt
Kate Winslet in The Reader


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR|
Josh Brolin in Milk
Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams in Doubt
Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis in Doubt
Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River - Written by Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky - Written by Mike Leigh
In Bruges - Written by Martin McDonagh
Milk - Written by Dustin Lance Black
WALL-E - Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Doubt - Written by John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon - Screenplay by Peter Morgan
The Reader - Screenplay by David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire - Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Baader Meinhof Complex - Germany
The Class - France
Departures- Japan
Revanche - Austria
Waltz with Bashir- Israel


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Betrayal (Nerakhoon) - A Pandinlao Films Production, Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath

Encounters at the End of the World - A Creative Differences Production, Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser

The Garden - Scott Hamilton Kennedy

Man on Wire - A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn

Trouble the Water - An Elsewhere Films Production, Tia Lessin and Carl Deal


ANIMATED FILM

Bolt - Chris Williams and Byron Howard
Kung Fu Panda - John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
WALL-E - Andrew Stanton


ART DIRECTION

Changeling - Art Direction: James J. Murakami, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt, Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo

The Dark Knight- Art Direction: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Peter Lando

The Duchess - Art Direction: Michael Carlin,
Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway

Revolutionary Road - Art Direction: Kristi Zea, Set Decoration: Debra Schutt


CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling - Tom Stern
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight - Wally Pfister
The Reader - Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
Slumdog Millionaire - Anthony Dod Mantle


COSTUME DESIGN

Australia - Catherine Martin
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Jacqueline West
The Duchess - Michael O'Connor
Milk - Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road - Albert Wolsky


DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

The Conscience of Nhem En - Steven Okazaki

The Final Inch - Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant

Smile Pinki - Megan Mylan

The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306- Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde


FILM EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon - Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
Milk - Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens


MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Greg Cannom
The Dark Knight - John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O'Sullivan
Hellboy II: The Golden Army - Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz


MUSIC (SCORE)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Alexandre Desplat
Defiance- James Newton Howard
Milk - Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire - A.R. Rahman
WALL-E - Thomas Newman


MUSIC (SONG)
Down to Earth from WALL-E - Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Lyric by Peter Gabriel

Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire - Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar

O Saya from Slumdog Millionaire - Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman andMaya Arulpragasam


SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
La Maison en Petits Cubes - Kunio Kato
Lavatory - Lovestory - Konstantin Bronzit
Oktapodi- Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
Presto - Doug Sweetland
This Way Up - Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes


SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Auf der Strecke (On the Line) - Reto Caffi
Manon on the Asphalt - Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont
New Boy - Steph Green and Tamara Anghie
The Pig - Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh
Spielzeugland (Toyland) - Jochen Alexander Freydank


SOUND EDITING

The Dark Knight - Richard King
Iron Man - Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
Slumdog Millionaire - Tom Sayers
WALL-E - Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
Wanted - ,Wylie Stateman


SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten

The Dark Knight - Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick

Slumdog Millionaire - Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty

WALL-E - Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt

Wanted - Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt


VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron

The Dark Knight - Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin

Iron Man - John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan
So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

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Postby Jayelle » Thu Jan 22, 2009 12:01 pm

Kate Winslet better win this time. I know she won the Golden Globes, but she needs to win an Oscar... it's ridiculous how many times she's been nominated.
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Postby locke » Thu Jan 22, 2009 12:56 pm

Since she was only nommed once this year (instead of being nommed in lead for revolutionary road and supporting for the reader as at the globes), she's far and away the front runner to win, only Heath Ledger is more of a sure thing than Winslet in the main categories. Additionally she was nominated for the better performance that's much more likely to be embraced than the much more divisive character in revolutionary Road. That said, Winslet delivered my number 1 and 2 best female leading performances of the year, 1. The Reader, 2. Revolutionary Road. :)

What I think will win:

Best Picture - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor - Mickey Rourke
Best Actress - Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress - Penelope Cruz
Best Original Screenplay - Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated film - Wall*E
Best Documentary - Man on Wire (Trouble the Water, about Hurricane Katrina is a strong upset choice though)
Best Foreign Language film - Waltz with Bashir (The Class and Revanche are strong upset choices)
Best Art Direction - Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Cinematography - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Costumes - The Duchess
Best Editing - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Makeup - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Music Score - Slumdog Millionaire (Button has a slim chance at an upset here)
Music Song - Slumdog Millionaire - Jai Ho (amazing Springsteen's awesome song for the Wrestler wasn't nominated)
Sound Editing - Wall*E
Sound Mixing - The Dark Knight
Visual Effects - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Short Film Animated - Le Maison en Petits Cubes
Short Film Live Action - Manon on the Asphalt
Short Film documentary - Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306
Last edited by locke on Wed Feb 11, 2009 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

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Postby Jayelle » Tue Feb 10, 2009 10:58 pm

HUGH JACKMAN?!?
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Postby LilBee91 » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:30 pm

^ The reason I'll watch the Oscars.

eta: Hugh Jackman, not JL (sorry) =]
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Postby Jayelle » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:42 pm

“I suppose I could riff a list of things that I care as little about as our last week together. Lemme see, uhh…. Low-carb diets. Michael Moore. The Republican National Convention. Kabbalah and all Kabbalah-related products. Hi-def TV, the Bush daughters, wireless hot spots, ‘The O.C.’, the U.N., recycling, getting Punk’d, Danny Gans, the Latin Grammys, the real Grammys. Jeff, that Wiggle who sleeps too darn much! The Yankees payroll, all the red states, all the blue states, every hybrid car, every talk show host! Everything on the planet, everything in the solar system, everything everything everything everything everything everything–eve–everything that exists — past, present and future, in all discovered and undiscovered dimensions. Oh! And Hugh Jackman.”
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Postby Gravity Defier » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:47 pm

God bless Dr. Cox.
Se paciente y duro; algún día este dolor te será útil.

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Postby Petra456 » Wed Feb 11, 2009 12:04 pm

Ugh, Hugh Jackman :x

I was on a quest to see all the movies up for best picture, but I won't go see a movie alone and no one around here is really interested in them. I have seen Milk and Frost/Nixon though. I'm dying to see Slumdog Millionaire!
Member since March 16th, 2004.

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And love will not break your heart, but dismiss your fears.
Get over your hill and see what you find there,
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Postby locke » Wed Feb 11, 2009 1:15 pm

do whatever it takes to drag someone (anyone!) to slumdog millionaire. I guarantee they'll thank you for it and they'll probably love it.
So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

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locke
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Postby locke » Wed Feb 11, 2009 7:22 pm

I updated my predictions, pwebbers are free to crib them for whatever oscar pool/guessing they might enter into . hopefully they'd make you look smart and movie-savvy rather than me ending up with egg on my face. :-p

the biggest upset choices, I feel, are Sean Penn for best actor (with Frank Langella an outside shot to win it via a vote split), In Bruges for Original Screenplay (WallE is also a possibile upset in this category) and Australia for costumes. also a decent chance that Slumdog Millionaire or Benjamin Button will take home an award in the sound mixing and or sound editing categories. traditionally these tend to go to the nominee that is nominated for one but not the other, but few people think that will happen this year.
So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

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Postby locke » Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:56 am

Movies to see in theatres this weekend:
Trouble the Water (sunday at 11am, only playing in one theatre in LA on saturday and sunday at 11am)
Defiance
The Class
Waltz with Bashir

Movies to watch at home this weekend:
Frozen River
The Duchess

Movies to watch at home next week:
Wanted
The Changling

Movie to watch (hopefully) next saturday at 11am, The Betrayal (see comment on Trouble the water)
such a schedule will allow me to see all the oscar nominated movies except three of the foreign films, one of the documentaries and the four documentary-shorts. That'd be a first seeing all the movies in all categories but the 'specialty' categories. :-p
So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

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Postby Dr. Mobius » Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:48 am

Waltz with Bashir
Please tell me I'm not the only one whose mind instantly goes to the doctor from DS9.
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Postby locke » Sun Feb 22, 2009 4:34 pm

this is the first year that I've seen all the nominees in all the regular categories, and some of the nominees in the hard to see categories

all I didn't see:
Documentary shorts
Documentary (The Betrayal, The Garden)
Foreign Language Film (Departures, Revanche, The Baader Meinhof Complex)

I'm pretty pleased, here are my final predictions and alternates, I think the two sound categories are the hardest ones to predict.


Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
ALT: Milk

Best Director
Danny Boyle
ALT: Stephen Daldry

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke
ALT: Sean Penn

Best Actress
Kate Winslet
ALT: Melissa Leo

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger
ALT: Josh Brolin

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz
ALT: Taraji P Henson

Best Original Screenplay
Milk
ALT: In Bruges

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
ALT: The Reader

Best Foreign Language Film
Departures
ALT: Waltz with Bashir

Best Animated Feature Film
Wall*E
ALT: Kung Fu Panda

Best Documentary Feature
Man on Wire
ALT: The Betrayal

Best Original Score
Slumdog Millionaire
ALT: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Original Song
Jai Ho - Slumdog Millionaire
ALT: Down to Earth - Wall*E

Best Art Direction
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
ALT: The Duchess

Best Costume Design
The Duchess
ALT: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Make Up
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
ALT: The Dark Knight

Best Cinematography
Slumdog Millionaire
ALT: Changling

Best Film Editing
Slumdog Millionaire
ALT: The Dark Knight

Best Sound Mixing
Slumdog Millionaire
ALT: The Dark Knight

Best Sound Editing
Wall*E
ALT: The Dark Knight

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
ALT: The Dark Knight

Best Documentary Short
The Witness: from the Balcony of Room 306
ALT: The Conscience of Nhem Eh

Best Short Film (Animated)
Le Maison en petits cubes
ALT: Presto

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Manon on the Asphalt
ALT: Toyland
So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

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Postby locke » Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:27 am

I won 75$ in our work's oscar pool. it was a $5 buy in and I scored 210 points out of a possible 240. :D (ten points for a correct prediction, 5 points for a correct alternate, I missed the doc shorts category completely and missed four other categories but had them as my alternate. :D)
So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph because good is dumb.


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